June Market Update

July 16, 2025

Market Indices Performance

A table showing the market indices of various stocks

June Recap


The S&P 500 rose 5.1% in June, hitting a new all-time high late in the month to close out a volatile first half of the year.1 The recovery was sharp and sudden as investors shrugged off the trade war worries and geopolitical concerns that fueled the decline (see figure 1). Longer-term bond yields dropped as investors tempered expectations of increased inflation. 2


Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.7% year-over-year, marking the 51st consecutive month above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.3 The labor market remained strong: employers added 147k jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. The unemployment rate has remained below 4.5% since 2021.4 Job openings totaled 7.8m, pushing the ratio of openings to unemployed people solidly back above 1.5

A computer screen shows a graph of a stock market.


Current Developments (July)


President Trump recently announced 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico starting August 1.6 While this decision could have major implications for the economy and the market, it appears that tariff headlines have lost their shock value as frequent deadline extensions and few tangible effects have made investors calloused to the news.


President Trump signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law over the 4th of July weekend. It permanently extends the individual income tax brackets set in 2017, allows deductions for tips, overtime pay, and those over 65 years old, and establishes “Trump accounts” - savings accounts for children born between 2025 and 2028, each initially funded with a $1,000 government contribution into a selected investment.7


The Future


Analysts expect 5% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q2 and 9% for the full year.8 Both Wall Street and the Federal Reserve still anticipate two interest rate cuts in 2025.9,10 President Trump has continued to call for the Federal Reserve to cut rates to lower borrowing costs for consumers and refinancing costs for the Treasury. Potential tariff-driven inflation and a historically strong labor market have given the Fed pause on cutting, even though inflation has been trending lower (see figure 2).


July is historically the best month of the year for stocks.11 After negative GDP growth in Q1, second quarter GDP growth is forecasted to be positive.12 President Trump’s reciprocal tariff pause initially set to expire on July 9 has been extended to August 1.6



Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers



1. https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ESPXTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EDJITR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ENACTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ERUTTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EMSEAFETR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EBBUSATR – Index Performance

2. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y/- 10yr Treasury Yield

3. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733- CPI

4. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227 - Jobs reports

5. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL- Job openings

6. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/- Tariff tracker

7. https://www.wealthenhancement.com/blog/one-big-beautiful-tax-bill - Big Beautiful Bill

8. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_071125.pdf - Earnings

9. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html – Investor rate expectations

10. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-June-2025- Fed Outlook

11. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-the-average-stock-market-return-in-every-month-of-the-year – Monthly market history

12. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow- Q2 GDP




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March 20, 2026
February Recap The S&P 500 fell -0.8% in February , its first negative month in ten. International equities continued to perform well, while concerns around AI spending and its potential disruption to the software industry led technology stocks lower. 1 The benchmark 10yr Treasury yield dropped from over 4.2% to below 4%, leading to a 1.6% gain for the US Aggregate Bond Index. 2 Inflation , measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.4% year-over-year ; April will mark five years above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target (figure 1). The economy lost -92k jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% , further negative news for a labor market that has been weakening since 2022 (figure 1). 3 S&P 500 earnings grew 14% in Q4 2025, the fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth. 4 The Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). However, the administration instituted a new blanket tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which will last 150 days. As a result, the average global tariff rate dropped slightly. 5
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