November Market Update

December 17, 2025

Market Indices Performance

Market Indices performance table showing returns for S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, MSCI EAFE, and US Aggregate Bond Index.

November Recap

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% in November, hitting new all-time highs and extending its winning streak to seven straight months.1 Most indices posted similarly modest gains, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined after seven straight positive months. The benchmark 10yr Treasury yield ended November nearly unchanged around 4.1% again, though it briefly dipped below 4% later in the month.2 


Due to the government shutdown, which ended November 12 after a record 43 days, October and November’s inflation and labor market data have been delayed until December 16. The latest readings, based on September data, showed CPI inflation at 3.0% and the unemployment rate at 4.4%, continuing the worrying trend of inflation and unemployment rising simultaneously (figure 1).3 

Line graph of U.S. economic data: unemployment and annual percentage change in the development of labor.

Current Developments (December)


Q3 earnings season is wrapping up; earnings growth of 13% has far exceeded initial expectations of 7%, helping propel stocks to new all-time highs.4

Mortgage rates are at their lowest level in 3 years at 6.1% after several interest rate cuts (figure 2).5

Ongoing tariffs: A baseline 10% tariff and higher tariff rates on key trading partners like Canada (35%), Mexico (25%), India (50%), and Brazil (50%) remain in effect, while deals including 15% tariffs on most goods have been struck with Japan, South Korea, and the EU.

Line graph of U.S. economic data: unemployment and annual percentage change in the development of labor.

The Future

The Supreme Court is expected to rule before the end of the year on whether President Trump’s tariffs, enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), are lawful. If not, the Trump administration will likely attempt alternative methods to reinstate them, though existing tariff revenue may have to be refunded.7


Wall Street is still predicting another interest rate cut on December 10, which would bring the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and President Trump has indicated that he has a potential replacement in mind.8

In 2026, earnings growth is expected to remain in double digits, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors projected to post gains.4



Since 1950, December has been the second-best performing month of the year for stocks, often thanks to a ‘Santa Claus rally’ near the end of the month.9

1. https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ESPXTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EDJITR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ENACTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ERUTTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EMSEAFETR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EBBUSATR – Index Performance

2. https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/ - Bond Yields

3. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ - Economic data

4. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/Earnings Insight_120525.pdf – Earnings

5. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US - Mortgage rates

6. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/geoeconomics-center/trump-tariff-tracker/ - Tariff rates

7. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariff-revenue-soars-fy-2025-amid-legal-uncertainty - Tariff legality

8. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html – Investor rate expectations

9. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-average-sp-500-return-by-month-since-1950/– Monthly market history


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