September Market Update

October 17, 2025

Market Indices Performance

A table showing the market indices of various stocks

September Recap

The S&P 500 rose 3.7% in September, hitting several new all-time highs and marking its fifth straight positive month.1 Big Tech stocks led the gains on the back of strong earnings and continued AI development. The benchmark 10yr Treasury yield ended lower, finally breaking below the 4.2% level as investors now expect three total rate cuts in 2025.2 


Due to the ongoing government shutdown, September’s inflation and labor market reports have been delayed. Expectations are for 3.1% inflation, 40k jobs added, and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%.3 This would send inflation back above 3% for the first time since May 2024, another setback given that price growth has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for more than four and a half years now (figure 1).



The Federal Reserve delivered the first rate cut of 2025 on the 17th, with Chair Jerome Powell characterizing the move as a ‘risk-management cut’ in the face of a weakening labor market.4

Line graph showing economic data with peaks and valleys over time; a circled area highlights a recent trend.

Current Developments (October)


On October 1, the government shut down over disagreements regarding healthcare funding. As of day 14, it has already become the 5th longest shutdown since 1976.5 Despite the political noise, stocks have historically held up well during shutdowns and performed even better afterwards (figure 2).



President Trump recently threated 100% tariffs on China following China’s announcement of further rare earth export controls.6 Markets initially dropped on the news but rebounded after Trump hinted that a deal is likely to be reached before the November 1 deadline. 

A baseline 10% tariff and tariffs on key trading partners like Canada (35%), Mexico (25%), India (50%), and Brazil (50%) remain in effect, while deals including 15% tariffs on most goods have been struck with Japan and the EU.7 

Table showing S&P 500 performance during & after government shutdowns, with historical data from 1976-2018.

The Future

After another quarter of double-digit earnings growth in Q2, S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 8% in Q3.8 October is historically a mediocre month for stocks, but November and December typically deliver strong gains.9



Both Wall Street and the Federal Reserve continue to project two additional interest rate cuts in 2025, following the one in September.10 This would bring the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by the end of the year.

1. https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ESPXTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EDJITR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ENACTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5ERUTTR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EMSEAFETR, https://ycharts.com/indices/%5EBBUSATR – Index Performance 

2. https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/ - Bond Yields

3. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ - Economic data 

4. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/fed-rate-decision-september-2025.html - Fed rate cut

5. https://www.ncsl.org/in-dc/federal-government-shutdown-what-it-means-for-states-and-programs- Government Shutdowns

6. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/14/china-us-world-economy-trump-tariffs China Tariffs

7. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/geoeconomics-center/trump-tariff-tracker/ - Tariffs

8. https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_101025.pdf - Earnings

9. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-the-average-stock-market-return-in-every-month-of-the-year – Monthly market history 

10. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html – Investor rate expectations 



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The views expressed are those of the author as of the date noted, are subject to change based on market and other various conditions. This presentation is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The material discussed is meant to provide general education information only and it is not to be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice and does not give investment recommendations.


Certain risks exist with any type of investment and should be considered carefully before making any investment decisions. Keep in mind that current and historical facts may not be indicative of future results.


Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2 available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/123807.

This is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Material is meant to provide general information and it is not to be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. The information has been compiled from third party sources. Keep in mind that current and historical facts may not be indicative of future results. Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2, available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Advisor Public Disclosure website, https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/123807

This material was created for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as ERISA, tax, legal, or investment advice. If you are seeking investment advice specific to your needs, such advice services must be obtained on your own separate from this educational material. ©401(k) Marketing, LLC. All rights reserved. Proprietary and confidential. Do not copy or distribute outside original intent.

October 17, 2025
As the season of giving approaches, many people look for meaningful ways to share their wealth with loved ones or places that make an impact in their local community. Whether it’s helping a grandchild with college expenses, supporting a favorite charity, or simply giving a thoughtful financial gift, strategic gift giving can play an important and impactful role in your estate planning strategy. Working with a financial advisor can help guide your generosity and align it with your long-term goals. Why Gift Giving Belongs in Your Estate Plan Gift giving isn’t just an act of kindness, but it can also be a smart financial planning strategy. By incorporating gifting into your estate plan, you can: Reduce your taxable estate: The IRS allows individuals to gift up to a certain amount each year per recipient without triggering federal gift taxes. This can help reduce the size of your taxable estate over time. Support family members or causes during your lifetime: Instead of waiting to pass assets through inheritance, you can witness the impact of your generosity today. Simplify wealth transfer: Strategic gifting can make the estate settlement process smoother and less stressful for your beneficiaries. A financial professional can help you navigate annual exclusion limits, lifetime exemptions, and other tax considerations so your gifts are both meaningful and efficient. Understanding the Annual Gift Tax Exclusion Each year, the IRS sets a gift tax exclusion limit. This is the amount you can give to an individual without using your lifetime exemption or owing gift taxes. For example, if you give $19,000 or less per person (based on 2025 and 2026 IRS limits)1, those gifts are generally tax-free for both you and the recipient. This strategy can be especially effective for parents and grandparents looking to transfer wealth gradually. You can give to multiple children, grandchildren, or anyone else each year, reducing your estate while providing financial support to those you care about. Gifting Beyond Cash: Creative Estate Planning Ideas Gift giving doesn’t have to be limited to cash. A well-rounded estate plan might include: Education funding: Contributing to a 529 college savings plan is a great way to invest in a child’s future while enjoying potential tax benefits. Charitable gifts: Donating to qualified organizations can provide both emotional and tax rewards. Each of these strategies carries unique financial and tax implications, so professional guidance is key. How a Financial Advisor Can Help A trusted financial advisor can help you integrate gifting into your broader estate planning and wealth management strategy. They can: Evaluate how gifting fits into your long-term financial goals Help calculate potential tax savings and implications Coordinate with your estate attorney and CPA for a comprehensive plan By working with professionals, you can have your generosity reflect both your values and your financial vision for the future. Sources: 1: https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/gift-tax-rate
October 13, 2025
As the year winds down, it’s the perfect time to review your finances and take steps to optimize your tax situation. Year-end tax planning isn’t just about reducing what you owe, it’s about setting yourself up for financial success in the year ahead. With thoughtful planning and guidance from a financial advisor, you can make the most of available strategies to help strengthen your financial foundation. Why Year-End Tax Planning Matters Many important tax-related opportunities close once the calendar year ends. By taking action before December 31, you may be able to: Maximize deductions and credits Adjust investment strategies for tax efficiency Contribute to retirement accounts Review capital gains and losses Ensure charitable contributions are properly documented A proactive approach allows you to make informed decisions that align with both your short-term goals and long-term financial plan. Key Year-End Tax Strategies to Consider Here are a few strategies individuals often review before the new year begins: Maximize Retirement Contributions – Contributions to accounts like a 401(k) or IRA may reduce taxable income while helping you grow savings for retirement. Harvest Investment Losses – Selling investments that have declined in value can offset capital gains elsewhere in your portfolio. Review Charitable Giving – Donating to qualified charities may provide a deduction if you itemize. A financial advisor can help you explore options like donor-advised funds for strategic giving. Evaluate Withholding and Estimated Taxes – Adjusting now can help you avoid surprises at tax time. Use Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) – Check your FSA balance and use eligible funds before they expire. Each situation is different, and the right mix of strategies depends on your income, goals, and tax bracket. The Value of Working with a Financial Advisor A financial advisor can help you see the full picture. Not just for your taxes, but how each decision fits into your broader financial plan. Working with an advisor can help you: Identify personalized tax-saving opportunities Coordinate strategies with your accountant or tax professional Align investment choices with your long-term goals Create a plan to start the new year financially confident Your advisor can also help you prepare for upcoming changes in tax laws or contribution limits that could affect your 2026 planning. Start the New Year Strong Year-end tax planning is an opportunity to reflect, rebalance, and refine your financial strategy. By working with a financial advisor, you can move into the new year with clarity and confidence knowing you’re making decisions that support your long-term goals.
October 6, 2025
Not all debt is created equal. While debt often gets a bad reputation, it can be a powerful financial tool or a costly mistake. The key is to know the difference between good debt and bad debt. What Is Good Debt? Good debt is borrowing that helps you build long-term value or increase your income. It’s typically low-interest and tied to investments in your future. Examples include: Student loans for education that increases earning potential Mortgages that build home equity Business loans that fund growth Investment property loans generating rental income Good debt works for you and helps you acquire assets or improve your financial position over time. What Is Bad Debt? Bad debt is borrowing for items that lose value quickly or don’t contribute to your financial growth. It often carries high interest and leads to long-term repayment without lasting benefit. Examples include: Credit card debt from non-essential spending Payday loans with extremely high fees Auto loans for luxury or unnecessary vehicles Consumer loans for vacations or electronics  Bad debt drains your finances and can limit your ability to save or invest.
September 29, 2025
As retirees increasingly rely on digital tools for banking, investing, and communication, they’ve also become one of the primary targets for today’s most sophisticated financial scams. In 2025, Americans over the age of 65 represented the largest share of victims in reported financial cybercrimes. 1 With billions (16.6 billion in 2024) lost to phishing attacks, fake tech support calls, fraudulent investment schemes, credit card information stolen, and identity theft, many of these scams are no longer obvious. 1 They mimic real institutions, use familiar language, and in some cases even clone the voices of loved ones using AI. Why Are Retirees Targeted? Scammers often target retirees for several reasons: They are more likely to have accumulated savings. Many manage their finances independently, without employer oversight. Some may be less familiar with newer digital threats or fast-changing technology. Emotional manipulation. Such as pretending to be a grandchild in trouble is highly effective with this demographic. The Role of Financial Professionals Financial advisors and planners play a crucial role in protecting retirees. From market volatility to tax savings financial advisors help retirees stay concrete in their financial future. But as the digital age has grown, this also expands into the more prevalent invisible digital threats that may arise. Here’s how they help: 1. Education and Awareness Advisors can proactively teach clients how to spot scams, question suspicious requests, and avoid common traps like urgent money transfers or unfamiliar links. 2. Account Monitoring Many advisors help monitor for irregular account activity, unexpected withdrawals, or patterns that suggest coercion or fraud, especially for older clients. 3. Preventive Structures Professionals can set up account protections, including multi-factor authentication, trusted contact authorizations, and restricted access to certain funds or accounts. 4. Fraud Response In the event a scam does occur, financial professionals assist clients in contacting the right institutions, freezing accounts, reporting the fraud, and taking legal next steps if necessary. Peace of Mind Through Partnership In retirement, peace of mind doesn’t just come from a well-balanced portfolio. It comes from knowing your finances are protected, your accounts are monitored, and someone you trust is just a phone call away. The best financial advisors act as a first line of defense. If something feels suspicious, they want to hear about it before you respond or send money. One quick check-in could prevent a costly mistake. Final Thought If you're retired or approaching retirement, now is the time to strengthen your financial defenses. Make sure your financial professional is helping you stay not only invested, but protected. And remember: When in doubt, pause, then call your advisor. Sources: 1. https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2025/07/31/online-scams-and-attacks-inamerica-today/
September 24, 2025
Market Indices Performance 
September 19, 2025
Talking about insurance isn’t exactly everyone’s favorite topic, but it’s an important one. Life insurance and long-term care (LTC) coverage are tools that can help you prepare for the unexpected. While many people wait until later in life, starting younger often means more flexibility, lower costs, and a wider range of choices. What They Cover Life insurance → pays a benefit to your beneficiaries if you pass away. This can help cover expenses like rent, loans, or general household costs. Long-term care insurance → helps cover care expenses if you ever need help with daily activities over an extended period. This can include in-home care, assisted living, or nursing facilities costs that typically aren’t covered by health insurance or Medicare. Why Younger Can Be Better Costs are usually lower. Premiums are generally based on age and health. Applying earlier can mean lower monthly payments. More likely to qualify. Good health makes approval easier. Waiting until health issues arise can limit options. More choices. Some policies or riders are only available if you apply earlier. Time to plan. Starting younger lets you spread out costs and build coverage into your budget gradually. Less uncertainty. Putting coverage in place sooner can reduce the risk of being caught off guard later. Things to Consider Premiums are an ongoing cost, so make sure they fit within your budget. You may be paying for long-term care coverage years before you use it. Inflation riders, waiting periods, and benefit limits vary by policy. It’s important to understand the details. Insurance needs can change over time. Reviewing coverage every few years is a good practice. Getting Started Think about who depends on your income now or who might in the future. Compare different companies and products to understand what’s available. Look at both stand-alone and combination (life + LTC) options. Work with a licensed professional and financial planner who can walk through your personal situation. Final Thought Exploring life insurance and long-term care while you’re younger doesn’t mean you expect the worst. It means you’re preparing ahead of time, so future choices are less stressful and potentially more affordable. Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Insurance products vary, and everyone’s situation is different. Please consult with a licensed insurance or financial professional before making decisions about coverage. Any opinion included in this blog constitutes our judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The views expressed are those of the author as of the date noted, are subject to change based on market and other various conditions. Certain risks exist with any type of investment and should be considered carefully before making any investment decisions. Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2 available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/123807 .
September 12, 2025
Imagine waking up in the morning and realizing your money has been busy working while you slept. That’s the power of a thoughtful financial plan—shifting from working for every dollar to having your dollars quietly working for you. Creating Your Financial Roadmap Financial planning starts with clarity. A financial advisor or consultant can help outline a plan that reflects your goals, resources, and time horizon. This can include:  Individual and personal financial planning for major milestones like buying a home or funding education. Financial planning for businesses to align growth with long-term stability. Retirement plans for small businesses that support both owners and employees. A financial planning firm brings together these services so you can look at the bigger picture, not just one piece at a time. Preparing for the Unexpected Life doesn’t always go according to script, which is why planning for the “what ifs” is so important. Disability planning and life insurance services can provide support for you and your family in unforeseen circumstances. Estate planning is another key step. Working with an estate planner or using estate planning services helps organize how your assets are managed in the future. Making Your Investments Work Investing is one of the most effective ways to put your money to work. Investment advisors, investment managers, and advisory firms can provide guidance tailored to your situation. Services such as investment management and the use of investment models help bring structure and consistency to your approach. If retirement is on your horizon, retirement income planning, retirement plan investments, and ongoing retirement planning services can help align your resources with the lifestyle you want. Managing Risk Along the Way Every financial plan comes with some level of risk. That’s why risk management services and financial risk assessments are essential. A risk manager can help identify potential challenges before they become major issues. For those who need additional oversight, fiduciary services can help ensure that financial decisions are carried out in accordance with established standards. Support for Businesses Business owners often juggle both personal and commercial priorities. That’s where business plan consulting and commercial financial services come in. Combining these with broader financial planning creates a consistent framework for both sides of the equation. Letting Your Money Do the Work At the end of the day, the goal of financial planning isn’t about working harder—it’s about giving your money the chance to do some of the work for you. With support ranging from personal planning to investment management, retirement strategies, and risk awareness, your finances can be set up to keep moving even when you’re not. So go ahead—get some rest. Your plan can keep working while you sleep. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way, whatsoever. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase any products or services. All investments involve risk (the amount of which may vary significantly), and investment recommendations will not always be profitable. Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2, available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Advisor Public Disclosure website, https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/123807 .
September 9, 2025
You’ve probably heard the advice: “Skip your daily latte and retire rich.” This idea, now commonly known as The Latte Factor, was popularized by author David Bach. But is skipping coffee really the secret to building wealth or just financial clickbait? What Is the Latte Factor? The Latte Factor refers to small, everyday purchases that add up over time. A $5 coffee might not seem like much, but spent daily, that’s around $1,825 per year. If invested with a 7% annual return over 30 years, it could grow to $172,390. Can It Make You a Millionaire? In short, no, not by itself. Skipping coffee won’t make you a millionaire unless you pair it with other smart money moves like investing regularly, increasing your income, and avoiding high-interest debt. The real point of the Latte Factor isn’t about coffee. It’s about awareness of where money is going. Small, unconscious spending habits can prevent you from achieving bigger financial goals. When It Makes Sense to Cut Back Consider cutting out small expenses if: You’re struggling to save or pay down debt You're living paycheck to paycheck You’re spending out of habit, not enjoyment What Builds Real Wealth? Skipping lattes might help, but true wealth comes from: Consistent saving and investing Growing your income Avoiding lifestyle inflation Making intentional financial choices Final Thought The Latte Factor is a helpful metaphor, but it is not a magic formula. It’s not about guilt; it’s about being mindful. If your coffee brings joy and fits your budget, enjoy it. Just make sure your financial habits support your long-term goals. Sources: 1. The Latte Factor: Why you Don’t Have to Be Rich to Live Rich, by David Bach and Kohn David Mann. Copyright 2019. All content presented is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to sell securities or provide investment, tax, or legal advice. All examples are hypothetical, for illustrative purposes only, and are merely arithmetic calculations. They are not representative of the performance of any type of investment, security, or strategy offered by the firm. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Hypothetical returns do not reflect actual trading and may not be indicative of the performance of any specific investment. They are based on assumptions and estimates that may not be accurate or applicable to your individual situation. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on our Form ADV Part 2 available upon request or at the SEC’s Investment Advisor Public Disclosure Site https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/123807 .
August 29, 2025
As you likely know, tariffs have been a major theme of the Trump administration in 2025. These tariffs are being implemented for a few reasons: negotiation/bargaining, punishment/sanction, and improving the U.S.’s economic situation. As a reminder, a tariff is a tax on imported goods. For example, raising the tariff rate on Japan to 25% means that all goods that U.S. companies import from Japan will be subject to a 25% tax at the port of entry. Punitive and Reciprocal Tariffs The tariff announcements began in February, with President Trump threatening 25% punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico if they didn’t stop the flow of fentanyl across their borders. In April, Trump and the Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick announced “reciprocal tariffs”, aimed at lowering the trade deficits between the U.S. and foreign countries. These included a base 10% duty on all countries that have tariffs on U.S. goods, as well as significantly higher rates on countries with high tariff rates on U.S goods (like 46% on Vietnam). This announcement sent stocks reeling as the rates were much higher than expected. Stocks fell 14% in the next 4 days. Then, Trump put a 90-day pause on these reciprocal tariff and stocks rose almost 10% that day. As of August, these tariffs have gone into effect for all countries who haven’t made deals with the U.S. (Japan, Vietnam, and the EU have notably made deals). Targeted 50% Tariffs: India & Brazil India and Brazil have emerged as focal points of the new tariff strategy. India initially faced a 25% reciprocal tariff, but that was doubled to 50% since they are continuing to import Russian oil. Brazil’s tariff rate was raised from 10% to 50%, mostly for political reasons.
August 22, 2025
Market Indices Performance